When the 2018 World Cup qualifying draw was made, and with this their first tournament following the international retirement of the iconic Zlatan Ibrahimović, few would have given Sweden a chance of advancing from Group A.

However, with just two games to play they are a point off top place, and should now at least reach the play-offs by finishing second. Leaders France are a single point ahead of them but have more straightforward final two games in the form of Bulgaria and bottom side Belarus.

Sweden, meanwhile, must face the Netherlands on Monday, the side directly below them, in what could effectively be a one-game play-off, depending on the results of matchday nine. The Netherlands need a real turnaround in fortunes to even get close to qualification, however. Their goal difference is six goals worse than the Swedes and they will need lots of goals in their remaining fixtures. Fortunately for Dick Advocaat they face Belarus first, who have just five points, after their 3-1 win over Bulgaria last time out gave the Oranges a slight glimmer of hope having also missed out on Euro 2016.

A standout feature for Sweden has been in attack. With 18 goals they have scored the most in Group A, while they have also been relatively solid at the back, conceding under a goal a game on average. In facing Luxembourg, they are coming up against the side with the worst defensive record – 17 conceded – and who have won just two competitive fixtures since 2013. Luxembourg’s sole victory in qualification for the 2018 World Cup was against Belarus, and they have recorded just two draws to mean that they could still finish bottom themselves, depending on goal difference.

Tipbet have this World Cup 2018 qualifier covered, with over 55 odds markets available. The three match winner markets are always popular and Tipbet expect Sweden to get three points – this is at 1.05. A draw has odds of 18.5, with a rare Luxembourg victory given the even longer odds of 25.0. Sweden are 1.30 to score at least three goals at the Friends Arena.

Tipbet odds for other Group A games:

Belarus v Netherlands

Bulgaria v France

Netherlands v Sweden